Adjusted prediction for worldwide smartphone deliveries in 2025, due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, according to an analysis.
Smartphone Shipment Forecast for 2025 Takes a Hit, Thanks to US Tariff Uncertainties
In a shocking turn of events, Counterpoint Research has slashed its 2025 global smartphone shipment forecast, revising the growth rate from a hopeful 4.2% to a grim 1.9%. This bleak outlook is primarily due to renewed concerns surrounding US tariffs, casting a shadow over the tech industry[1][2][3].
Most regions are still expected to register growth in 2025, except for North America and China. The US market's expected price hikes, coupled with tariffs, have led to a less optimistic outlook for the former. As for China, the government's subsidy program hasn't sparked the anticipated market reaction, causing a revision to near-flat year-on-year (YoY) growth[3].
Huawei, however, is poised for a brighter future. The company's prospects have improved due to the easing of supply chain bottlenecks and the successful development of its self-made chips. This could grant Huawei a significant foothold in the mid-to-lower-end smartphone market, particularly in its home turf[2][3].
Liz Lee, Counterpoint Research's Associate Director, shared some insights, "The smartphone market's focus lies on Apple and Samsung due to their exposure to the US market. Tariffs indeed played a role in our forecast revisions. However, weakened demand isn't limited to North America but extends to Europe and certain parts of Asia."
Lee continued, "Despite the downgraded growth predictions, we're confident about strong iPhone 16 series sales in Q1 2025, driven by the ever-growing premiumization trend, notably across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and Gulf countries[4]."
Counterpoint Research's forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025. However, the ongoing trade policy uncertainty could significantly impact manufacturers' strategies, supply chain planning, and, consequently, consumer demand[3].
Ethan Qi, another Associate Director at Counterpoint Research, weighed in on the situation, "Despite the pessimistic overall outlook, 2025 could still hold a glimmer of hope for the smartphone market - Huawei. With sourcing bottlenecks apparently easing for key components, and its homegrown chips proving effective, Huawei is well-positioned to capture a considerable share in the mid-to-lower-end segments[2][3]."
[1] Counterpoint Research's Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report[2] Tariff situation[3] Counterpoint Research's latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report[4] Premiumization trends in emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and Gulf countries
News about the smartphone industry indicates a downgraded growth forecast for 2025, with a revised growth rate of 1.9%, due to uncertainty over US tariffs and their potential impact on prices in the US market.
Conversely, opinion suggests that Huawei could thrive in the mid-to-lower-end smartphone market, thanks to the easing of supply chain bottlenecks and the development of its self-made chips.
Amid these forecasts, there is a growing concern about the effect of ongoing trade policy uncertainties on manufacturers' strategies, supply chain planning, and ultimately, consumer demand, particularly in the environment of the technology sector.
