Alibaba surpasses Meituan in China's on-demand delivery sector, powered by one million daily tea orders
In the ever-evolving landscape of China's on-demand delivery and instant commerce sectors, a fierce competition between Meituan and Alibaba Group is unfolding.
As of 2025, Meituan leads China’s on-demand food delivery market with about 60–70% market share, and it is projected to maintain a 75% share in food delivery gross transaction value by 2030. However, in the broader instant commerce industry, Meituan’s share is expected to decline to around 48% by 2030, nearly equal to Alibaba’s forecasted 47% share.
The industry is shifting from Meituan’s near-monopoly to a near-duopoly with Alibaba's emergence. Alibaba Group, combined with its fintech affiliate Ant Group, has been consolidating resources across 22 platforms (including Taobao, Tmall, Ele.me, Freshippo, and Alipay) to challenge Meituan’s dominance. This includes efforts to improve delivery rider welfare and launch unified membership programs to strengthen customer loyalty.
Meituan, on the other hand, is replicating its model overseas with localized offerings in Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil, investing heavily to capture local markets. Alibaba is leveraging partnerships such as AliExpress’s expansion of quick delivery services in London and Brazil.
Recent developments suggest a shift in the market dynamics. After Meituan stopped its promotion on Friday and Saturday, Taobao's orders surpassed Meituan's. However, the exact number of orders on both platforms during this period is not specified.
Both firms continue investing heavily in subsidies, rider welfare, ecosystem integration, and international expansion as they compete for market dominance in China’s evolving on-demand and instant commerce sectors. Alibaba Group Holding did not respond to requests for comment, and Meituan followed suit.
According to Morgan Stanley's estimates, Alibaba's share in the instant commerce industry may increase significantly by 2030. The source of these predictions is Morgan Stanley, but the specific report or study is not mentioned. LatePost reported this information on Tuesday without specifying the source.
To summarise, Meituan and Alibaba are expected to hold nearly equal shares in China's on-demand delivery and instant commerce markets by 2030, with Meituan maintaining a slight lead in food delivery and Alibaba closing the gap in instant commerce. The race for market dominance in these sectors is expected to continue, with both companies continuing to invest heavily in subsidies, rider welfare, ecosystem integration, and international expansion.
In the broader context of the instant commerce industry, both Meituan and Alibaba Group are projected to hold significant market shares by 2030, with Alibaba's potential increase being estimated by Morgan Stanley. The competition between these two tech giants in the realm of finance, business, and technology, particularly in China's on-demand delivery and instant commerce sectors, remains fierce and shows no signs of abating.
