Artificial Intelligence set to escalate global trade by approximately 40% by 2040, according to WTO's report.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has released its annual World Trade Report 2025, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to drive economic growth and reduce trade costs, but also emphasising the need for inclusive policies to ensure that benefits are shared across all economies.
In the report, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that 'with the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all.' She also reaffirmed the WTO's commitment to supporting inclusive growth in the context of AI-powered trade.
The report urges greater investment in education and training to prevent inequality within economies. It calls for members to broaden commitments under WTO agreements to make AI technologies more affordable and accessible worldwide.
According to the report, global GDP could expand by 12 to 13 percent due to AI-powered trade growth. However, it does not mention any specific forecasted percentage increase in global trade or GDP due to AI.
Trade itself is expected to be a driver of inclusive AI-powered growth, providing access to essential inputs such as semiconductors and raw materials, which already represented USD 2.3 trillion in global trade in 2023.
The report notes that barriers remain in the adoption of AI-related goods. Quantitative restrictions on these goods have risen sharply from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. Tariffs in some low-income economies reach as high as 45 percent for AI-related goods.
The countries that have requested under WTO agreements to expand investments in education and training and to make AI technologies more accessible and affordable include China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil.
For developing and middle-income economies, a 50% reduction in the digital infrastructure gap with advanced economies could result in income gains of up to 15 percent. The scale of these gains depends on policies that close the digital divide, strengthen workforce skills, and ensure open and predictable trade environments.
Okonjo-Iweala also warned of persistent inequalities in access to AI, emphasising that AI's potential to cut trade costs and boost productivity could be hindered if not addressed. She stated that 'with the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all.'
The World Trade Report 2025 predicts that artificial intelligence could increase the value of cross-border goods and services by almost 40 percent by 2040. However, it does not mention any specific forecasted percentage increase in the value of cross-border goods and services due to AI.
In conclusion, the World Trade Organisation's report underscores the potential of AI to drive economic growth and reduce trade costs, but also emphasises the need for inclusive policies to ensure that benefits are shared across all economies. The report calls for greater investment in education and training, broader commitments under WTO agreements, and policies that close the digital divide, strengthen workforce skills, and ensure open and predictable trade environments.
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