Election Day Propels Polymarket and Kalshi to Peak Positions on App Store Rankings
In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a new wave of prediction market apps, including Kalshi, Polymarket, and the pioneering PredictIt, are making their mark on the American political landscape. These platforms, operating under the watchful eye of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have faced and are continuing to navigate significant legal challenges related to offering event contracts on U.S. elections and other political outcomes.
Current Regulations and Status
The CFTC regulates prediction markets because these markets often involve trading event contracts that resemble futures or derivatives. The CFTC evaluates whether these contracts qualify as permissible futures products or as unauthorized gambling.
PredictIt, a trailblazer in the U.S., faced strong opposition from the CFTC in 2016, similar to the current situation with Kalshi and Polymarket. However, after a legal battle, PredictIt and the CFTC reached a settlement in 2025, lifting key limits and enabling PredictIt to expand its offerings while remaining compliant with regulatory concerns.
Kalshi, fully regulated by the CFTC, has engaged in landmark legal battles, notably in 2024 when a U.S. District Court upheld that Kalshi’s “Congressional Control Contracts” are legitimate futures products rather than prohibited gaming. This ruling was critical in establishing Kalshi’s right to offer trading on sports-based and political event contracts, setting a precedent for the industry.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, has strategically navigated regulatory hurdles by acquiring QCX, a derivatives exchange with a coveted CFTC license. This move positions Polymarket to legally re-enter the U.S. market with regulatory clarity, as the Department of Justice and CFTC closed their investigations of Polymarket after reviewing its handling of U.S. traders.
Navigating Opposition from the CFTC
Platforms have had to engage closely with the CFTC, often under “no-action” letters or regulatory settlements allowing experimental or limited operations. Legal battles have centered on whether these platforms’ event contracts constitute legitimate financial futures or illegal gambling. Courts have increasingly sided with platforms like Kalshi, framing certain political and sports event contracts as permissible futures products under CFTC jurisdiction.
Platforms have adapted by implementing user limits, stake caps, and compliance with federal campaign finance laws, aligning their trading models with regulatory requirements rather than typical gambling standards. Polymarket’s recent acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange demonstrates strategic navigation by entering fully regulated channels to overcome prior enforcement risks.
As the election nears, these apps are heavily favoring Donald Trump for reelection, with his shares trading at 69 cents compared to 39 cents specifically at Polymarket. Kalshi, despite facing a legal dispute with the CFTC, remains the first most downloaded free store app, followed closely by Polymarket.
PredictIt’s bold stance has emboldened a new wave of similar platforms looking to achieve something similar with Polymarket. Kalshi’s cofounder, Luana Lopes Lara, believes that prediction markets are the future, echoing the sentiments of many in the industry.
The CFTC’s attempts to force Kalshi to shut down its operations have not been successful so far. The regulatory body has not been able to halt the rise of these platforms, which continue to operate and innovate within the complex and evolving regulatory frameworks overseen by the CFTC.
- The rise of prediction market apps, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, in the U.S. political landscape is influenced by the evolution of technological innovation, including social media and gadgets, which enable real-time political tracking and forecasting.
- As these platforms, like Kalshi and Polymarket, navigate through extensive policy-and-legislation concerning their operations under the CFTC, their growth and expansion contribute significantly to the broader discussion of technology's influence on entertainment, politics, and general-news discourse.
- Despite ongoing legal challenges and regulatory oversight, the success and recent victories of prediction market apps, such as Kalshi, have garnered attention from investors and entrepreneurs worldwide, further fueling the growth of this niche sector and its potential impact on technology and politics.
