EU Car CO2 Targets Clear: T&E Predicts EV Boom by 2025
The European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E) has welcomed the end of uncertainty over EU car CO2 targets. It predicts a significant increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales by 2025, with a focus on affordable models driving the growth. The organisation also notes that relying more on hybrids could reduce the required EV market share to meet 2025 targets.
T&E forecasts EV sales to rise to 24% market share in 2025, up from 14% in the first half of 2024. This growth will account for more than half (60%) of the CO2 reduction needed to reach 2025 targets. The expansion of mass market EV offerings is expected to support this rise, with 2025 seeing a significant increase in the availability of affordable electric cars in Europe.
T&E welcomes the end of uncertainty over EU car CO2 targets and calls for electrification targets for corporate fleets. In Germany, leading car manufacturers such as the VW group (including Audi, Skoda, Seat/Cupra, and Porsche), BMW, and Mercedes are expected to significantly increase their electric car offerings to meet the stricter standards coming into effect from 2025. National governments are advised to implement comprehensive charging master plans and stable, targeted subsidy schemes to support EV uptake.
T&E's central compliance scenario forecasts EV sales to reach 20-24% market share by 2025. However, it warns that manufacturers' reliance on hybrids as a short-sighted strategy for the climate and competition with Chinese battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Relying more on hybrids could reduce the required EV market share to 20% for compliance with 2025 targets, but T&E stresses the importance of a long-term strategy focused on full electrification.
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