"Increased Manufacturing of Drones by the Russians"
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Russia's Intensified Use of Drone Attacks in Ukraine: An Examination by Colonel Markus Reisner
Russian forces have increased their deployment of air strikes in Ukraine, raising concerns about their strategic intentions. Colonel Markus Reisner offers insights into the reasons behind this escalation and its implications on the battlefield.
In an interview with ntv.de, Reisner explained the perceived misjudgments of Western Ukrainian supporters and their consequences on the frontline.
ntv.de: Colonel Reisner, Ukrainian reports indicate 355 Russian drone attacks and nine cruise missile strikes in the past 24 hours, followed by heavy air strikes during the weekend. What does the increase in tempo on the Russian side mean?
Markus Reisner: This surge in activity leads to substantial damage. While Ukraine is still managing to shoot down a considerable number of attacking drones, the interception rate for cruise missiles and Iskander rockets is inadequate to prevent substantial damage. Moreover, Ukraine is also targets Russian territory with up to 150 drones simultaneously. The Russians claim over 1000 drones penetrated Russia last week, although this figure might be inflated. Nevertheless, it's clear that the number of Russian attacks is significantly rising. Remarkably, Russia's production of Geran-2 drones, which began at approximately 300 units per month earlier in 2024, has increased to producing these drones in just three days at present.
The Geran 2 is a considerable drone, over three meters long and two meters wide. Initially supplied by Iran, its predecessor, the Shahed-136, has been domestically replicated by Russia. Are the Russians now able to produce high-quality drones of comparable range and size autonomously?
Reisner explained that the production rate of 300 units per month, which the Russians needed at the beginning of 2024, has since been reduced to just three days. These drones are colloquially referred to as "flying mopeds" due to the distinctive noise their engines produce upon impact. Furthermore, a development towards jet engines has also taken place. With these engines, the drone flies like a model airplane, increasing speed but decreasing range. Some modified models are specifically designed as decoys to lure out Ukrainian air defense. The explosive payload of attack drones has escalated; previously, a Geran carried up to 50 kilometers of explosives, but now they carry up to 100 kilograms, effectively doubling the explosive power.
Can production be further amplified?
Given the current escalation in attacks, Reisner believes that the Russians might boost their production rate to 500 units per day in the near future. Consequently, Ukraine can expect relentless, massive strategic air attacks in the coming days. Reinforcements have also been noted along the entire front line, from the north to the south, suggesting this is the culmination of the spring offensive, which is progressing more swiftly than anticipated. The operational level is particularly tense, especially in the central section of the front.
Operational implies the cooperation of large Russian military units and their branches. Between Pokrovsk and Torez, a significant breach is threatened, potentially resulting in a double encirclement, one around Pokrovsk and the second around Torez. The fourth, improvised defense line is increasingly being breached, and criticism is mounting on the Ukrainian side. For example, the commander of the 1st Battalion of the 47th Mechanized Brigade has publicly expressed his frustration with the Ukrainian General Staff's supposed lack of a clear understanding of the situation on the front, leading to nonsensical orders.
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Videos from the frontline have consistently shown small groups of soldiers struggling to hold out in fortified positions under constant fire from Russian glide bombs, artillery, and attack drones. These soldiers are gradually retreating and expressing their distress in video messages: "We have wounded. We are not sure where to go. We cannot move during the day. It doesn't make sense to hold this position." This criticism is a recurring theme on social media and has also been explicitly stated by the aforementioned commander. "Why are we constantly holding this ground?" he questions. "Why aren't we trying to be more dynamic?"
Is there more criticism?
The second main criticism pertains to mobilization. With key focus on 18- to 25-year-olds, who have so far been exempted from conscription, videos depict recruitment offices attempting to forcibly conscript young men into combat. Many battalions, normally composed of 600 to 700 men, consist of only 250 soldiers, having been in combat for three years. If no relief or reinforcement is provided, they will inevitably succumb to exhaustion. These two criticisms, along with others, suggest a need for improvement in Ukraine's military strategy and mobilization efforts.
When discussing the course of the war, we often discuss symmetry and asymmetry. Russian superiority in some areas creates an asymmetrical relationship. In the case of drones, does Ukraine have comparable capabilities to counter Russian capabilities?
The most prominent weapon system that Ukraine can employ to defend against Geran-2 drones is the German Gepard, an anti-aircraft tank. The Gepard successfully takes down these drones, but its operational range is limited. The next probable option would be medium to long-range air defense, although the necessary ammunition is costly and in limited supply. The USA, along with other allies, have been trying to provide Ukraine with new Patriot air defense missiles for continuous reloading.
However, this issue of overloading defense systems affects all defense mechanisms, including in Israel. When the opponent produces an overwhelming number of incoming weapon systems, the defense reaches its limits. Ukraine faces the dilemma of using air defenses in the country's depth to shield against massive air attacks on military-industrial infrastructure or deploying them at the front to protect its own positions from bombardment.
Is there no "drone countering drone" combat model?
Yes, both combat technology and tactics are under development on both sides to address this issue. Counter-drone drones are being designed to combat enemy drones. The Ukrainians are working on this in Kursk, in addition to using helicopters or antiquated propeller planes to detect and track drones, making it possible for soldiers to destroy them with standard machine guns. This strategy represents an attempt to counter the wave of mass drone attacks.
Similarly, there is a growing focus on countering small first-person-view drones. The "drone against drone" approach is considered, particularly against fiber-optic controlled drones, which are resistant to interference due to long-distance control through wires. Nevertheless, there is the opportunity to detect these drones early using radar and specifically combat them with counter-drones.
Ukraine has a number of powerful Western allies behind it. Why doesn't their economic power, know-how, and innovation result in Ukraine being supplied with the necessary drones? Unlike tanks, drones can be produced quickly. Who is causing the delay, and where?
According to Reisner, two misconceptions have influenced perceptions over the past few months. First, Russia is not acting alone in the conflict. Russian forces are fighting with allies on their side. Take China, for example, and specifically the spool machines they provide for small drones to unwind their fiber-optic wires during flight.
Second, Europe does indeed have the technological innovation capabilities necessary to flood Ukraine with an adequate number of drones. However, the production quantities required to meet Ukraine's needs have not been observed, even in Ukrainian brigades. Many of these brigades are partially equipped by individual NATO countries, but they cannot always communicate effectively with neighboring brigades because they rely on different systems provided by different nations.
For instance, consider the 47th Brigade, from which the previously mentioned criticism originated. It has been deployed in various hotspots along the frontline, from the summer offensive of 2023 to the encirclement at Awdejewka and the Kursk region. Here, we see the obstacle: when tanks are destroyed, little follow-up support is forthcoming. Nevertheless, Russia produces 1500 tanks yearly through new production and repairs, which they are all fighting against.
Frauke Niemeyer spoke with Markus Reisner
Source: ntv.de
- Attack on Ukraine
- Donbass
- Drones
- Russia
- Ceasefire
- Debate on weapons deliveries
- Kremlin
- The increased use of drone attacks by Russian forces in Ukraine, as seen in the past 24 hours with 355 reported drone attacks and nine cruise missile strikes, raises concerns about the employed technology in war-and-conflicts, particularly artificial-intelligence integrated drones like the Geran-2.
- The production of high-quality drones like the Geran-2 autonomously by Russia, once supplied by Iran, has accelerated significantly, with the production rate reduced from 300 units per month early in 2024 to just three days currently, reflecting the impact of politics and general-news events on production capabilities.
- As Ukraine faces relentless, massive drone attacks with increasing production rates, questions arise about its employment policy and military strategy, with criticism from soldiers and commanders about the lack of clear understanding on the frontlines and the need for improvement in mobilization efforts and counter-drone technology development.
