Potential Positive Impact on Boeing Due to Tensions between Trump and Musk
Boeing's commercial airliner business is on the mend under CEO Kelly Ortberg, and there's a possible silver lining for its struggling space division too. The blowout between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk has some experts suggesting it could be a golden opportunity for Boeing.
After an explosive social media spat, Trump threatened to cancel federal contracts with Musk's companies. Although Musk eventually backed off from the threat, the dust-up could benefit Boeing in three key areas: the Starliner crew capsule program, the embattled Artemis moon landing program, and United Launch Alliance (ULA), the rocket joint venture with Lockheed Martin.
It's highly unlikely that Trump would follow through on his threat to cancel contracts, as that would invite a flurry of legal challenges, according to Todd Harrison, a space and defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. But the Trump administration is free to funnel more business to Boeing (and others)—and potentially pull back from Musk's Mars ambitions. "Where Trump can seriously harm SpaceX is by redirecting NASA's mission goals," Harrison noted.
SPACE TAXI
Back in 2014, NASA awarded contracts to both Boeing and SpaceX to build spacecraft capable of transporting American astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) on a commercial basis. But Boeing's Starliner program has stumbled repeatedly, leaving NASA heavily reliant on SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft. NASA has added three more launches to SpaceX's contract, making a total of nine.
Boeing has been saddled with a massive $2 billion loss on its $4.6 billion, fixed-price contract. The troubled first crewed test flight of the Starliner last year featured malfunctioning thrusters, resulting in the decision to airlift astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore back to Earth on a Dragon capsule instead. Musk's threat to retire Dragon could alter the landscape for the administration.
"I think NASA might find having alternatives to be wise," Tim Farrar, an independent satellite industry consultant, suggested.
Wildcard: Russia hasn't committed to supporting the ISS beyond 2028, which could force NASA to deorbit the station earlier than planned, reducing the need for transport services.
TO THE MOON
The Trump administration proposed a radical overhaul of the Artemis program, launched during Trump's first term to return Americans to the moon. The administration wants to phase out the giant Boeing-produced rocket at the heart of the program, the Space Launch System (SLS), after just two more launches. The rockets cost a whopping $4 billion each, and it's uncertain whether Congress will go along with axing the SLS, which supports jobs in all 50 states. "It seems more likely now that NASA may continue with an Artemis program that utilizes SLS," Harrison pointed out.
One other potential winner besides Boeing: Blue Origin. NASA has contracted the Jeff Bezos-owned company and SpaceX to both produce lunar landers for the Artemis program, but SpaceX's Starship rocket has failed three times in a row recently. NASA might well double down on Blue Origin instead.
NATIONAL SECURITY
The fallout between Trump and Musk could lead the Department of Defense and other national security agencies to redouble their efforts to diversify their stable of satellite launch providers, which is dominated by SpaceX. But the immediate upside could be limited for ULA, which needs to ramp up the launch rate of its new Vulcan heavy rocket. "ULA couldn't handle all of SpaceX's contracts, even if they were handed to them," Harrison explained.
The toxic breakup with Musk could also make defense officials hesitant to rely on SpaceX for Golden Dome, the administration's missile defense shield plan. "This might make people think twice about whether that money should go to Musk or to more traditional contractors," Farrar offered, as a not-so-subtle hint at Boeing.
- The spat between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk could potentially benefit Boeing in the Starliner crew capsule program, given the president's threat to cancel federal contracts with Musk's companies.
- In the space-and-astronomy sector, Boeing might see an advantage with NASA's mission goals, particularly with the Artemis moon landing program, where the administration could redirect funding away from Musk's Mars ambitions and toward Boeing.
- In the business world, Boeing could benefit from increased contracts in the space industry, as the Trump administration might choose to funnel more business to Boeing, potentially diminishing SpaceX's role.
- In the realm of technology and finance, the uncertainty surrounding Musk's SpaceX, following the ongoing feud with Trump, might lead NASA to consider alternatives for its lunar lander program, one potential winner being Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin.
