Showcasing Economic Progression under Authoritarian Regimes
The Economist's Visualization Reveals Discrepancies in GDP Reporting in Dictatorships
The Economist, a global news publication, has created a visualization that highlights discrepancies between reported and actual GDP in dictatorships. The visualization compares economic output data against measures of political freedom, revealing that in countries with low political freedom—typically dictatorships—the officially reported GDP figures often overstate actual economic performance.
The visualization groups countries by the level of freedom in their political system. Free countries are represented by yellow circles, partly free countries by pink circles, and not free countries by red circles. The visualization uses satellite data to estimate the real gross domestic products (GDPs) of countries, providing a visual representation of the discrepancies between reported and estimated GDPs in different political systems.
According to the visualization, the less free a country is, the more likely it is to report a false GDP. In dictatorships classified as "not free" or with low political rights and civil liberties, reported GDP tends to deviate positively from estimates based on economic fundamentals or alternative indicators. This suggests inflation, manipulation, or unreliable official statistics.
The visualization thus demonstrates a pattern where the lower the political freedom in a country, the greater the likelihood that its official GDP figures are exaggerated relative to independent assessments or modeled estimates of actual economic activity. This reflects incentives in authoritarian regimes to present an overly favorable economic image for regime legitimacy or international standing.
Political freedom indices such as the Freedom House scale (1 = most free to 7 = least free) which assess political rights and civil liberties, media freedom, and related governance indicators, are used to categorize countries as "free," "partly free," or "not free." The Economist cross-references such categorizations with economic data to reveal that GDP reporting integrity systematically declines with political repression.
In summary, The Economist’s visualization correlates levels of political freedom with deviations in GDP reporting, illustrating that dictatorships with less political freedom frequently report inflated GDP figures that differ significantly from their actual economic conditions. This visualization serves as a tool for comparing reported and estimated GDPs across countries grouped by political freedom levels and provides a potential indicator of economic data manipulation in dictatorships. The Economist invites viewers to examine the data for themselves.
[1] The Economist, (2022). The Economist's GDP Tracker: A visualization of the world's economies. [Online]. Available: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/16/the-economists-gdp-tracker-a-visualisation-of-the-worlds-economies [Accessed 10 March 2023]
In the Economist's visualization, countries with lower political freedom are more likely to report higher GDP figures, deviating from estimates based on technology, finance, and business indicators, suggesting data manipulation or questionable statistical methods. The visualization employs satellite data to estimate actual GDPs, thereby allowing for a comparison between reported and realistic economic growth, especially in dictatorships.
