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Significant Bitcoin decrease to $104K: Will $3.3B influx trigger Bitcoin's recovery?
On June 11th, deep-pocketed Bitcoin [BTC] investors dumped a massive $3.3 billion worth of BTC into long-term holder wallets - the single largest 2025 inflow. These investors now manage an impressive 2.91 million BTC.
This significant investment happened while Bitcoin traded around $104,719, reflecting a 2.41% daily drop. Despite the volatility, the sheer size of these inflows indicates a bullish long-term sentiment.
Holding On Tight
Large investors, also known as whales, are a force to be reckoned with in the Bitcoin market. One such whale pocketed $106 million worth of BTC by sending it to Binance in June. This ""whale"" has been selling since April 2024, offloading 6,500 BTC. However, it still holds a substantial 3,500 BTC, a sign that it's not a complete exit but more of a strategic distribution.
On the flip side, long-term holders (LTHs) have been snappling up BTC with vigor. In the last 30 days, they've added a whopping 881,578 BTC to their portfolios, according to CryptoQuant. This aggressive accumulation signifies an unwavering belief in Bitcoin's long-term growth potential despite short-term market fluctuations.
Source: CryptoQuant
The $112K Showdown
Bitcoin's price repeatedly failed to break the $112K resistance. Although the bullish trendline support remains, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50, indicating a loss of momentum. If buyers can't quickly reclaim the $106K safe zone, the risk of another pullback to $101K increases. However, if bulls manage to breach these levels, they could catch short sellers off guard, potentially sparking a relief rally.
Source: TradingView
Bull vs. Bear Valuation
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio saw a 15.21% surge to 36.49. This suggests that Bitcoin's price might be rising faster than the actual demand for transactional use, which could signify potential overvaluation. Historically, spikes in the NVT ratio have indicated temporary tops. However, it's important to note that high NVTs can also occur during the early stages of a long-term uptrend, especially when holders focus on accumulation rather than spending.
Source: CryptoQuant
Keeping the Network Active
In the last week, active addresses grew by 1.69%, while new addresses decreased by 2.36%. This means existing users are still engaging with the Bitcoin network, while new user growth slows. The market appears fueled by internal momentum rather than fresh capital inflows. While this dynamic can drive short-term rallies, sustaining long-term growth often requires expanding the user base. Nevertheless, the increase in active wallets indicates that dedicated holders remain active, providing stability in unpredictable markets.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Liquidation Zones and Volatility
The 24-hour Binance liquidation heatmap shows dense long liquidation points around $105K and $102K. Moving into these areas could trigger a chain reaction of stop-losses, increasing volatility risk. If bears push below these levels, an escalation in volatility is likely. However, if BTC holds above $104K, it may trap short positions and spark a relief bounce.
Source: CoinGlass
Long-term Growth or Local Top?
Despite the rejection at $112K and temporary whale selling, long-term accumulation and massive inflows into HODL wallets show strong confidence in Bitcoin's future. Network fundamentals seem mixed, with sluggish user growth but steady activity from existing participants. Caution is advised due to elevated valuation metrics. However, if Bitcoin can reclaim $106K and defend important support levels, the path to new highs might be paved.
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[1] https://www.longhash.com/news/4455113786167542531
[2] https://www.longhash.com/news/4273093882743116393
[3] https://www.longhash.com/news/5580685177583779946
[4] https://www.longhash.com/news/4709251605322967236
- In the crypto world, large investors, commonly referred to as whales, are continuously making significant moves, such as the June whale who added $106 million worth of BTC to their Binance wallet by sending it there.
- Despite the whale's strategic selling, long-term holders (LTHs) have been aggressively accumulating BTC, adding 881,578 BTC to their portfolios in the last 30 days.
- The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio saw a significant surge, suggesting that Bitcoin's price might be overvalued, which historically has indicated temporary tops.
- In the Bitcoin market, the 24-hour Binance liquidation heatmap shows dense long liquidation points around $105K and $102K, making those levels crucial for market stability.
