Smartphone sales worldwide are expected to suffer setbacks due to the impact of tariffs, as indicated by IDC.
Impact of US Tariffs on Global Smartphone Sales in 2025 and Beyond
The global smartphone market has faced a period of uncertainty since April 2nd, with the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China having a significant impact on the industry. According to a report by IDC, the global smartphone sales growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.3% to 0.6%, due in part to the economic uncertainty brought about by U.S. tariffs.
The tariffs have made devices more expensive, compressed consumer demand, particularly in the price-sensitive low-end segments, and caused IDC to revise down its smartphone shipment growth forecasts for 2025. Global smartphone shipments grew modestly by about 1% year-over-year in Q2 2025, reaching 295.2 million units, despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges. However, growth was weaker than earlier expected due partly to tariff volatility affecting components and finished devices.
IDC's senior research director, Nabila Popal, stated that the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk. The tariffs and related geopolitical tensions have disrupted supply chains and raised prices for smartphones and components, constraining consumer spending globally, especially in markets heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing and imports.
Despite these challenges, some easing occurred in mid-2025 with limited trade truces and selective relaxation of chip export controls, which may help stabilize supply chains and partially mitigate the tariff impact on smartphone costs.
The U.S. tariffs are part of broader geopolitical and trade tensions that also depress global technology spending growth forecasts for 2025, expected to remain below earlier optimistic levels and limit IT and device market expansions.
In the U.S. market, smartphone sales are forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3%. U.S. and China are predicted to be the major contributors to the 0.6% growth of smartphone sales despite the ongoing tensions between them.
Apple could see a 1.9% decline in sales in China due to increased competition from Huawei. Android phone sales in China are expected to increase by 3% year-over-year. IDC's report claims that people are retaining their phones for longer periods and there is an increasing trend of buying refurbished smartphones instead of new ones.
Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, mentioned India and Vietnam as key alternatives to China for smartphone production. Smartphone sales are expected to remain low for the next five years, averaging at 1.4%.
The tariffs on phones built outside the U.S. were levied by the Trump administration at 25%. However, a recent ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade has halted President Trump's recent 10% tariffs on "virtually every U.S. trade partner." This ruling may bring some relief to the global smartphone market and help stabilize prices in the coming years.
In conclusion, the impact of U.S. tariffs on global smartphone sales in 2025 and beyond has been significant, leading to slower growth and increased market uncertainty. While the overall market continues a fragile growth trajectory, tariff-induced economic uncertainty remains a drag on the sector, with cautious optimism hinging on possible trade negotiation improvements and easing export controls in late 2025 and beyond.
The tariffs have made smartphones more expensive, affecting the global smartphone industry and causing a revision in the predictions for smartphone sales growth in 2025. The increased cost of smartphones, due to the tariffs, has compressed consumer demand, particularly in the price-sensitive segments, and prompted a growing trend of buying refurbished smartphones instead of new ones.
In the wake of the tariffs, some alternatives to China for smartphone production have emerged, with India and Vietnam being identified as key alternatives. The impact of the tariffs on global smartphone sales is not limited to the smartphone market alone, since they are part of broader geopolitical and trade tensions that also depress technology spending growth forecasts for 2025.
