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Strategies for the U.S. from the Space Aspects of the Ukraine Conflict

Insights from RAND report reveal strategies employed by Ukrainian and Russian military forces in their satellite usage over a three-year war period, offering valuable lessons for American policymakers.

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Insight from RAND's latest report reveals key learnings for American policy-makers, drawn from the...
Insight from RAND's latest report reveals key learnings for American policy-makers, drawn from the satellite utilization strategies of Ukrainian and Russian militaries throughout their three-year conflict.

Strategies for the U.S. from the Space Aspects of the Ukraine Conflict

In a recent report, the RAND Corporation has urged U.S. policymakers to establish partnerships with commercial companies and develop alternative tools for satellite communications, as well as strengthening navigation systems to counter enemy attacks in future wars. The report, published on May 21, examines the impact of space systems on the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, highlighting the pivotal role these systems have played.

The RAND Corp. report suggests relying on commercial space assets to support allies during conflicts, as demonstrated by Ukraine's successful deployment of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet in the early stages of the war. While the agreement with SpaceX was informal, Starlink offered a vital lifeline for Ukrainian forces, enabling communication, fire support, and intelligence-sharing capabilities.

According to the report, Starlink's significance was so prominent that commanders believed the war could have been lost without it. Furthermore, commercial satellite imagery providers, such as Maxar, Planet Labs, Capella, BlackSky, and HawkEye 360, played a crucial role in pinpointing the location of Russian forces, providing valuable intelligence to Ukrainian military forces.

However, relying on commercial space assets carries potential risks. For instance, the lack of a formal agreement between Ukraine and SpaceX left the company with discretion over when, where, and how to provide Starlink services. This situation raised concerns regarding contractual terms, government oversight, and potential misalignment between the company's goals and Ukraine's objectives.

For Israeli company ICEYE, its satellites using synthetic aperture radar allowed Ukrainian forces to identify over 7,000 Russian military equipment sites and troop positions within the first months of use. The data received substantially aided Ukraine's military in confirming the destruction of hundreds of Russian assets.

The report stresses that strategic contracts should address potential threats to commercial space systems, as well as indemnifying companies in case of asset loss. In addition, contracts for satellite imagery providers should include cybersecurity provisions and restrictions to prevent sensitive information from falling into the wrong hands.

The RAND Corporation recommends bolstering the Defense Department's satellite infrastructure by building a multiorbit network of satellites, enhancing resilience. This network would comprise both military-owned and commercial systems.

As global navigation satellite systems, such as GPS, continue to face jamming challenges, policymakers must invest in counter-jamming technologies and alternative navigation solutions for ongoing military operations. An electromagnetic cat-and-mouse game has emerged between Ukrainian and Russian troops, necessitating continued research and development of new positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) technology to ensure platform and munition effectiveness.

These recommendations underscore the essential role innovation, redundancy, and strategic partnerships—both with commercial entities and international allies—play in ensuring resilient satellite communications and navigation systems for future conflicts.

  1. The RAND Corp. report emphasizes the need for partnerships with commercial companies, such as SpaceX and ICEYE, to support satellite communications during conflicts, given the significant role these companies played in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
  2. The deployment of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet in Ukraine's war provided a vital lifeline for Ukrainian forces, enabling communication, fire support, and intelligence-sharing capabilities that could have potentially determined the war's outcome.
  3. Commercial satellite imagery providers, like Maxar, Planet Labs, Capella, BlackSky, and HawkEye 360, were instrumental in providing valuable intelligence to Ukrainian military forces by pinpointing the location of Russian forces.
  4. However, relying on commercial space assets carries potential risks, such as discretion over services and concerns regarding contractual terms, government oversight, and potential misalignment between company goals and military objectives.
  5. To mitigate these risks, the RAND Corporation recommends strategic contracts with commercial entities, addressing potential threats to space systems, indemnifying companies in case of asset loss, including cybersecurity provisions, and preventing sensitive information from falling into the wrong hands.

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