Strategy for Achieving Tranquility in Asia through Military Exercises
The United States is taking a multi-faceted approach to deter China, as shown by its recent policies and military modernization efforts. This strategy, which reflects the complex nature of the Sino-US security dilemma, aims to avoid direct conflict while asserting American interests.
One key element of this approach is large-scale joint military exercises, such as the 2025 Talisman Sabre drill, the largest ever, which involved 40,000 personnel from 19 countries. These exercises, which practice "island hopping," amphibious assaults, and airfield seizures across the Pacific, are designed to contain China within the First Island Chain and deny it maritime maneuverability. The exercises also enhance interoperability, particularly among U.S. allies operating fifth-generation aircraft such as F-35 jets.
Another crucial aspect of the strategy is the defense budget priorities under the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The NDAA emphasizes nuclear deterrence by authorizing procurement of Columbia-class submarines and sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles critical for Indo-Pacific deterrence. It also supports airpower modernization, restoring funding for F-35 fighters and B-21 bombers, and strengthens alliances through initiatives like $1 billion for Taiwan’s security cooperation and joint military drone development with Taiwan.
A comprehensive deterrence strategy against strategic and nuclear attacks is also being implemented. This strategy, as outlined by the Atlantic Council, focuses on preventing large-scale nuclear attacks, avoiding nuclear escalation in regional conflicts, maintaining sufficient forces to deter major-power conventional war, and ensuring warfighting sustainability under attack.
Legislative push to counter Chinese cyber threats is another critical front in deterring Chinese aggression. Senate proposals require the Department of Defense to develop credible deterrence strategies against cyberattacks targeting critical U.S. infrastructure.
Insights from senior officials and international relations scholars, such as Oriana Skylar Mastro, underscore the U.S. aim to prevent Chinese military aggression—particularly an invasion of Taiwan—through deterrence that balances military readiness and alliances. She also highlights the mutual use of deterrence by both states to avoid catastrophic conflict, with China seeking to limit U.S. troop presence and alliance growth as a means to safeguard its interests.
The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Dispute, a long-standing territorial dispute between China and Japan, is strategically important due to their location on a crucial shipping lane, their potential petroleum reserves, and their symbolic value in resolving unresolved war memories. The United States has clarified that mutual defense under the US-Japan defense treaty covers Japan's claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.
China's approach to maritime disputes is often shaped by a calculation to balance domestic opinion (audience costs) with anticipated blowback globally. China is militarizing the South China Sea and expanding its presence near Taiwan, making these areas the primary focus of these simulations. A threat of U.S. military action could horizontally escalate the localized dispute into a Sino-US war in the South China Sea or over Taiwan.
Despite concerns from some in Washington and the Pentagon, members of Congress do not believe a Sino-US war is inevitable. Even Chinese citizens do not support a war with the United States. The costs of a Sino-US war would be high for both countries.
The Joint Warfighting Concept is designed to overcome China's antiaccess and area-denial strategy in Asia. The purpose of any conflict simulation is to preserve stability by exposing senior political and military officials to conditions that could escalate to war if not managed prudently. Chinese leaders' strident statements about U.S. regional policy belie insecurity due to the costs they may incur from their citizens for not exercising greater regional and global leadership.
In synthesis, these measures illustrate a broad, integrated U.S. approach to deter China, combining military preparedness in the Indo-Pacific, strategic nuclear modernization, alliance strengthening, cyber defense initiatives, and a nuanced understanding of deterrence dynamics from leading experts. This alignment between policy, military modernization, and expert perspectives reflects the complex nature of the Sino-US security dilemma where both powers seek to avoid direct conflict while asserting their interests.
[1] https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/07/28/talisman-sabre-2021-exercise-to-focus-on-island-seizure-scenarios/ [2] https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/07/28/congress-passes-ndaa-for-2022-with-historic-taiwan-provisions/ [3] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/2021/03/24/deterrence-in-the-indopacific/ [4] https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/07/28/congress-passes-ndaa-for-2022-with-historic-taiwan-provisions/ [5] https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-china-threat-is-overblown-the-real-danger-is-the-china-challenge/
- The American strategy to deter China involves not only military exercises, such as the 2025 Talisman Sabre drill, but also a focus on nuclear deterrence and airpower modernization as outlined in the Fiscal Year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
- The NDAA prioritizes the procurement of Columbia-class submarines and sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles, while also restoring funding for F-35 fighters and B-21 bombers.
- Additionally, the strategy incorporates a comprehensive deterrence approach against strategic and nuclear attacks, as well as legislative initiatives to counter Chinese cyber threats.
- Experts like Oriana Skylar Mastro emphasize that the US aims to prevent Chinese military aggression, particularly toward Taiwan, through a balance of military readiness and alliances.
- The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands Dispute, with its strategic location and symbolic value, is a critical point of focus, with the US clarifying its commitment to defend Japan's claims under their defense treaty.
- However, despite the ongoing tensions and military preparations, both US policymakers and Chinese citizens hope to avoid a Sino-US war, understanding the high cost that such a conflict would entail for both nations.
