US Auto Market: EV Sales Surge, Negative Equity Rises
The US auto market is projected to see significant shifts in the coming months. By September 2025, nearly a quarter of new-vehicle buyers are expected to face negative equity, up from last year. Despite this, new-vehicle retail sales are forecasted to rise slightly, driven by a surge in electric vehicle (EV) news sales.
The electric vehicle retail share is expected to reach 12.2% in September 2025, a notable increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous year. This growth can be attributed to strong performances by traditional automakers. In Germany alone, Volkswagen sold over 100,000 electric cars, followed by BMW and Mercedes-Benz, pushing Tesla to 11th place. As a result, around one in five new cars registered in September 2025 is expected to be fully electric.
Looking at the broader market, the seasonally adjusted annualised rate for total new-vehicle sales is projected to reach 16.2 million units, up 0.3 million units from September 2024. The average used-vehicle price is also on the rise, trending towards $29,668 in September 2025, up $739 from a year ago. Meanwhile, total new-vehicle sales, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,232,200, a marginal year-on-year increase.
The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in September 2025 is expected to reach $45,795, up $1,310, or 2.9% from September 2024. Longer loan terms are becoming more common, with 84-month loans accounting for 11.0% of finance sales. Despite these trends, the market is expected to remain resilient, with new-vehicle retail sales and EV news market share both projected to increase.
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